WikiLeaking the Obvious

A diverse collection of nearly 100,000 documents was released to the website WikiLeaks last week regarding the U.S. war in Afghanistan. The source of the leaks is unknown, but the breadth of information contained in the documents is far-reaching and indicates a rather severe breach of information security. Nonetheless, all of the information released thus far is rated 'secret' or below (as opposed to more highly sensitive intelligence rated 'top secret') and none of the information is particularly shocking to those who have closely followed the United States' involvement in the region.

The leaked information paints a picture of the Taliban as a highly capable fighting force, a claim that appears self-evident considering the Afghan campaign represents the longest war in U.S. history. What may appear more surprising is the claim that Pakistan, a key U.S. ally in the conflict, has been providing supply line assistance and sanctuary to Taliban fighters that are killing American troops while denying the U.S. the right to pursue those fighters into Pakistan. Why would Pakistan allocate resources to helping the U.S. effort in Afghanistan while simultaneously undermining that effort by aiding the enemy? The answer is simple if you understand the geopolitical situation facing Pakistan and is described eloquently in this article by George Friedman.

The war in Afghanistan began in response to 9/11 in an effort to root out the Taliban government that was providing refuge to al Qaeda. Al Qaeda now operates autonomous cells in approximately 100 countries, therefore, a strategy aimed at eliminating the Taliban will do little to affect the durability of al Qaeda. The Taliban has never expressed any desire nor will to attack the United States as al Qaeda has, and when the United States withdraws from Afghanistan the Taliban will pose little threat to their national security.

Pakistan, on the other hand, will be drastically affected by the government that rules Afghanistan when the United States leaves. While the Taliban has technically been ousted from the government, they maintain a great degree of power and influence in the country. As Pakistan wishes to exert their influence on post-war Afghanistan, they are inclined to maintain an operating relationship with the Taliban as they will inevitably play some role in the country's future government. Thus, Pakistan has a strong incentive to play a two-pronged strategy: support U.S. and NATO forces in the country, while quietly remaining in the relative good graces of the Taliban. There is no amount of pressure that can be applied on Pakistan to change this incentive structure, and defeating the Taliban will do little to change the threat that remains from al Qaeda. Therefore, continuing the war in Afghanistan is an uphill battle that is being subverted by our own ally, demands incredible resources that we cannot afford, and which has no tangible benefit for U.S. national security. The WikiLeaked documents may have raised some eyebrows, but they did not reveal anything new about the war in Afghanistan.